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KMID : 1124020090250040051
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Korean Social Security Studies
2009 Volume.25 No. 4 p.51 ~ p.75
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Micro Simulation of Poverty Rate and Coverage of Social Security Programs in Times of Economic Crisis
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Lee Hyon-Joo
Kang Shin-Wook
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Abstract
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This study simulates the poverty rate and forecast the limits of coverage of social security system on the assumption that Korean economy got a shock like the crisis in 1997. Forecasting the change of poverty rate by micro simulation, we classified the whole households into some groups by market income deciles and socio-economic characteristics of householder, and estimated the portion of each groups that could be covered by major social security programs. The major findings are as follow. Household poverty rate is anticipated to increase to 31% on the assumption of economic crisis. But the two main social security program, social assistance and unemployment benefit could cover only 6.9% of households in poverty. Even though public transfer is payed to the target households, 17% of the poor seems to be excluded from these two programs and the share of working poor in the excluded poor would increase. Especially the near poor is more likely to be excluded than the poor. This study suggest that the infra to extend coverage of unemployment insurance should be developed and the target and level of in-kind benefits also should improved.
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KEYWORD
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economic crisis, poverty, micro simulation, social security
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